CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–The nation’s economy remained in deep recession during a three-month period ending in February.
However, data released Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago indicated the contraction in economic activity may have bottomed out in January when it dropped to a 34-year low.
The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index’s moving average for the three-month period ending in February was at -3.48, from a downwardly revised -3.61 in January, the lowest reading since February 1975. The Chicago Fed originally estimated the January figure at -3.41.
February marked 14 of the past 15 months that the three-month moving average was below -0.70, showing “an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun,” the Chicago Fed said in a news release.
In February alone, the national activity index stood at -2.83, up from -3.74 in January. The January index was also revised downward from an initial reading of -3.45.
The Chicago Fed reported all four of the index’s broadest categories of indicators fell during February.
Employment-related indicators were the hardest hit, making a negative contribution of -1.29 in February, showing some improvement from -1.51 in January.
During February, the U.S. Labor Department reported the unemployment rate reached 8.1%, the highest since December 1983. The same data revealed non-farm payrolls plunged by 651,000, as the economy shed 4.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007.
The index was calculated based on data available as of March 19. Of the 85 individual indicators that make up the index, 73 of them made negative contributions, the Chicago Fed said.
The March national activity index is scheduled to be released on April 20.
-Howard Packowitz, Dow Jones Newswires, (312)750-4132, howard.packowitz@dowjones.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 23, 2009 09:06 ET (13:06 GMT)
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